M-1: Climate Change Observations

First International Conference on

Global Warming and

the Next Ice Age

August 19 – 24, 2001
Dalhousie University

Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences Building

University and Le Marchant

Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

Petr Chylek

Chair

Scientific Program Committee

chylek@fizz.phys.dal.ca

Glen Lesins

Chair

Organizing Committee

lesins@fizz.phys.dal.ca

Program and

Registration Information

www.atm.dal.ca

SUNDAY, AUGUST 19, 2001

5:00-7:00 REGISTRATION, Cheese, Crackers and Wine
MONDAY, AUGUST 20, 2001

8:30-9:00 REGISTRATION

9:00

P. Chylek

Welcome to the Global Warming and the Next Ice Age

M-1: Ice Cores Climate Record
Chair: Sunling Gong, Meteorological Service of Canada

9:30	M1.1	p.20	J. W. C. White, J.-R. Petit	Paleoclimate from Ice Cores: Abrupt Climate Change and the Prolonged Holocene
10:00	M1.2	p.24	L. G. Thompson, E. Mosley-Thompson, M. E. Davis, K. A. Henderson, P.-N. Lin, H. H. Brecher	Climate Surprises: Lessons from Tropical Glaciers
10:30			Coffee

M-2: Carbon Dioxide and Water Vapor

Chair: Harold Ritchie, Dalhousie University and Meteorological Service of Canada

10:45	M2.1	p.28	J. Veizer	Four Billion Years of Carbon Cycle: What’s the Message for Us?
11:15	M2.2	p.29	W. M. Gray	Natural Versus Anthropogenic Climate Change
11:45			Panel Discussion	White, Thompson, Veizer, Gray
12:15			Lunch

M-3: Recent Climate Change

Chair: Keith Thompson, Dalhousie University

1:30	M3.1	p.34	J. R. Christy	Layer-Mean Global Temperature from Satellites
2:00	M3.2	p.38	T. R. Karl (Russell Vose)	Uncertainty and Observed Climate Change Variability: Means and Extremes
2:30	M3.3	p.39	H. Beltrami	Global Ground Surface Temperature and Heat Flux Histories from Geothermal Measurements: Inferences from Inversion of the Global Dataset
3:00	M3.4	p.43	S. F. Singer	Is the Climate Warming?
3:30 4:00			Panel Discussion Coffee	Christy, Karl, Beltrami, Singer

M-4: Paleoclimate

Chair: John DeLuisi. NOAA, Boulder

4:15	M4.1	p.44	G. S. Jenkins	The Use of Global Climate Models to Unravel the Mystery of Low Latitude Glaciation
4:45	M4.2	p.45	D. M. Anderson, C. M. Eakin, C. Woodhouse	Paleoclimate Data Available from the World Data Center for Paleoclimatology
5:15	M4.3	p.47	P. Chylek, G. Lesins, U. Lohmann	Enhancement of Dust Source Area During Ice Ages Due to Changes of the Hadley Circulation
5:27	M4.4	p.51	A. Hall, R. Stouffer	An Extreme Climate Event in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model without External Forcing
5:40			End

7:30 Bus to IMAX Theater

8:00-8:15 Introduction by Paal Brekke

8:15 SOLARMAX 40 min documentary movie

9:10 Bus to Dalhousie

TUESDAY, AUGUST 21, 2001

Late Registration: 8:10-8:25

8:30 - 8:55: Jubilee String Quartet (violin I - Gina Burgess, violin II - Diana Cohen, viola - Megan Bain, cello - Rachel Matthews)

The Jubilee Quartet is a classical string quartet, based in Halifax, Nova Scotia. Featuring some of the finest young musicians Nova Scotia has to offer, the members are all alumni of, or participating in programs offered by the Dalhousie University Music Department and the Nova Scotia Youth Orchestra. To learn more about The Jubilee Quartet and its musicians, visit their web site: http://www.jubileeq.ns.ca.

Pachelbel: Canon in D

Smetana: From the Moldau

Borodin: Nocturno from Quartet No. 2

Vivaldi: Summer - movement III

Barber: Adagio for Strings

T-1: Climate Variability 1

Chair: Richard Greatbatch, Dalhousie Univerrsity

9:00	T1.1	p.55	J. W. Hurrell	Tropical Origins for Recent North Atlantic Climate Change
9:30	T1.2	p.56	Z. Gedalof, N. J. Mantua, D. L. Peterson, D. J. Smith	Proxy perspectives on North Pacific climate variability
9:50	T1.3	p.62	T. Landscheidt	Solar Forcing of the ENSO, NAO, and PDO
10:15			Coffee

T-2: Climate Variability 2

Chair: Chris de Freitas, University of Auckland, New Zeland

10:30	T2.1	p.95	A. Clarke	The Variability of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation
11:00	T2.2	p.67	M. S. Serreze	Recent Changes in the North High-Latitude Environment: A Review of the Instrumental Record
11:30	T2.3	p.73	A. M. Greene, W. S. Broecker	Some observations on the interpretation of recent glacier fluctuations
11:50 12:20			Panel Discussion Lunch	Hurrell, Gedaloff, Landscheidt, Clarke, Serreze, Greene

T-3: Climate Change in Polar Regions
Chair: Hartmut Grassl, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg

1:40	T3.1	p.81	H. B. Granberg	Antarctic Snow and Global Climate
1:52	T3.2	p.71	R. Heino	Changes in Climate Extremes in Northern Europe
2:04	T3.3	p.77	P. Chylek G. Lesins	Recent Temperature Trends in Greenland
2:16 2:28	T3.4	p.85	G. Holloway, T. Sou Coffee	The Arctic is Melting: (1) a lot, (2) a little, (3) not at all, (4) can’t tell, (5) none of the above.

T-4: Climate Variability 3

Chair: John Christy, University of Alabama, Huntsville

2:40	T4.1	p.91	R. J. Haarsma, F. M. Selton, H. Goose	Mechanisms of extra-tropical decadal variability
3:00	T4.2	p.96	L. D. Keigwin, J. Sachs, Y. Rosenthal	A 1600-year History of the Labrador Current off Nova Scotia
3:20	T4.3	p.97	A. J. Brocolli, C. D. Hewitt, J. F. B. Mitchell, R. J. Stouffer	Ice-Age Tropical Climate Sensitivity: The Relative Importance of Atmospheric and Oceanic Processes
3:35	T4.4	p.98	R. Jacob, C. Poulen, I. Foster, C. Schafer, M. Tobis, J. Anderson	Applications of a Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model
3:50	T4.5	p.227	N. Zeng	An Earth System Model for Climate Variability Studies
4:05	T4.6		D.H. Douglas, B.D. Clader	Determination of the Parameters of the Earth-Climate System due to Forcing from the Solar 11-year Cycle and from Mt. Pinatubo Volcano Event
4:20			Break

T-5: Climate Variability 4

Chair: Raino Heino, Finish Meteorological Institute

4:35	T5.1	p.102	N. Calco, R. García, L. Gimeno, E. Hernández, D. Gellego, P. Ribera	Characterization of ENSO Impact on Tropospheric MSU Temperature
4:47	T5.2	p.107	K. Higuchi, A. Shabbar, C. W. Yuen	On a Relationship between the NAO and the Oceanic Heat Flux
4:59	T5.3	p.111	L. Vincent, É. Mekis	Indicators of climate change in Canada
5:11	T5.4	p.115	K. M. Sutherland, G. S. Lines	Regional temperature trends in Atlantic Canada
5:23	T5.5	p.119	P. Domonkos	Decreasing precipitation in south-central Europe: results and doubts
5:35	T5.6	p.123	P. L. S. Rao	The Features of Asian Summer Monsoon during Extreme Rainfall over India
5:47	T5.7	p.127	S. A. Masoodian	An Analysis of Tempo-Spatial Variation of Daily Precipitation in Karun Basin and its Effects on Hydrologic Behavior of the Basin
5:59	T5.8	p.129	S. Singh, V. U. M. Rao, D. Singh	Climate Variability and its Relation with Telecommunications on Regional Scale in India
6:11			End

T-6: Poster Introduction

Chair: Ian Folkins, Dalhousie University

6:15 2 minutes per poster

T-7: Posters 6:40-7:40

P1	p.130	J. A. Augustine, J. L. DeLuisi	NOAA’s Surface radiation budget monitoring in the United States for climate research
P2	p.134	F. S. Medioli, C. T. Schafer	Global Warming and Alternate Agendas: Where we are and where we might be
P3	p.135	L. de la Torre, L. Gimeno, P. Ribera, R. García, E. Hernández, D. Gallego	The use of Atmospheric Relative Angular Momentum to diagnose the Arctic Oscillation
P4	p.139	C. Junker, P. O’Brien, S. G. Jennings, B. D. Hinds, E. Martinex-Andazola, A. D. A. Hansen, C. White, D. M. Garvey, R. G. Pinnick	Aerosol in the Arid Southwestern United States: Measurement of Mass Conservation, Absorption Characteristics, Black Carbon Content and their Dependence on Air Mass Origin and Meteorological Conditions
P5	p.140	K. A. Heans	Assessment of Pre-Industrial Carbon Dioxide Content in the Atmosphere using Hydro-Chemical Data
P6	p.145	T. K. Mefford	Meteorological Measurements at the NOAA/CMDL Baseline Observatory at Barrow, Alaska
P7	p.149	M. Sawada, A. E. Viau, K. Gajewski	Critical thresholds of dissimilarity in the modern analog technique (MAT) for quantitative paleoclimate reconstruction
P8		C. Perry	Magnitudes, Patterns, and Causes of 20th Century Floods in the United States
P9		B. J. Topliss	A Simple Filtering Method to Exploit Non-Stationary in the Ocean-Atmosphere Climate System

WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 22, 2001

Late Registration: 8:10-8:25

8:30-8:55: A Melodious Morning with Denise (cello) and Phillipe Djokic (violin)

Ravel: Duo for Violin and Cello

Piatti: Caprice for solo Cello

Handel/Halvorsen: Passacaglia for Violin and Cello

Young Canadian cellist, Denise Djokic, is quickly emerging as one of the brightest musical stars in Canada. She has been a prize winner of many national and international competitions. She has appeared as a guest soloist with several symphony orchestras including the Symphony Nova Scotia and the National Arts Centre Orchestra.

Denise has recently won a national competition for the use (for two years) of a Stradivari cello worth approximately $ 4 million US.

Her early studies were with Olive Shaw at the Maritime Conservatory for

Performing Arts, and Shimon Walt (Symphony Nova Scotia), and Richard Aaron

at the Cleveland Institute of Music (where she was in the Young Artist

Programme for High School students).

Next month, Denise is returning to Boston (after taking this past year off for Concertizing) to study with Laurence Lesser and Paul Katz at the New England Conservatory.

Philippe Djokic, Denise's father, is well known as one of Canada’s distinguished violinists, chamber musicians and teachers.

A native of France, he was raised in New Jersey where he began his early musical instruction. He received the prestigious Fritz Kreisler award upon graduating from the Juilliard School, and subsequently won prizes at major international competitions such as the Sibelius, Thibaoud and Paganini Competitions. He has appeared as soloist with major symphony orchestras in Paris, Zagreb, Detroit and Montreal. In 1979 he received First Prize in the C.B.C. Young Artist Competition. A frequent guest soloist with Symphony Nova Scotia, he also served as a concertmaster for several years during the late Georg Tintner’s tenure as conductor.

Djokic has been on the faculty of Dalhousie University’s Music Department since 1975 where he performs frequently in duo with his wife, pianist Lynn Stodola (Chair, Dalhousie Department of Music). As a chamber music performer, he is a frequent guest at many of the most important music festivals throughout North America and abroad. He has performed at the Munich International Music Festival and the Amsterdam Chamber Music Society. During the summers, he has participated in festivals in Oregon, Colorado, Alaska, Ottawa, Utah and Fredericton.

When he is not performing, Djokic devotes much of his time training young talented violinists. His former students are presently members of the Montreal Symphony, Symphony Nova Scotia and orchestras is Europe. One of Canada’s foremost young violinists, Jasper Wood (soloist with Symphony Nova Scotia last season) studied with Djokic from the age of seven.

Philippe Djokic has a son, Marc and a daughter, Denise, both of whom have distinguished themselves as young award-winning musicians (violin and cello

W-1: Anthropogenic Influence on Climate 1
Chair: Glen Lesins, Dalhousie University

9:00	W1.1	p.172	C. de Freitas	Is it reasonable for climate scientists to continue to claim that the observed changes in concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are dangerous?
9:30	W1.2	p.161	H. Grassl, O. Kruger	Changed Cloud Characteristics due to Reduced Emissions in Europe
10:00	W1.3	p.162	P.J. Michaels, P. C. Knappenberger, R. E. Davis	Integrated projections of future warming based upon observed climate during the period of greenhouse enhancement
10:30			Coffee

W-2: Anthropogenic Influence on Climate 2
Chair: Lloyd Keigwin, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

10:45	W2.1	p.168	E. C. Weatherhead	Detecting Climate Change
11:10	W2.2	p.216	W. F. J. Evans, E. Puckrin	Comparison of Solar Variability Effects with Surface Radiative Forcing
11:30			Panel Discussion	deFreatas, Grassl, Michaels, Weatherhead, Evans
12:00			Questions and Answers from News Reporters	All Invited Speakers invited to participate
12:20			Lunch

W-3: Climate Variability 5
Chair: George Kukla, Lamont Doherty Observatory of Columbia University

1:40	W3.1	p.173	V. C. Slonosky	Climate and the NAO during the Little Ice Age: Instrumental Records from Europe and North America
1:52	W3.2	p.177	M. Wang, J. Overland, N. Bond	Temperature Decadal Change over the Arctic as Seen from TOVS and NCEP Analysis
2:04	W3.3	p.178	P. J. Wetzel	Icehouse effect: A Selective Arctic Cooling Trend Current Models are Missing
2:16	W3.4	p.182	A. S. Gagnon, W. A. Gough	Intermodel comparison of the Hudson Bay region, Canada
2:28			Coffee

W-4: Solar Variability and Climate
Chair: Anthony Broccoli, NOAA, GFDL, Princeton

2:45	W4.1	p.187	P. E. Damon, A. N. Peristykh	Climate Implications of the Atmospheric ) ¹⁴C Spectrum
2:57	W4.2	p.191	M. R. Morgan	A Hypothetical Model of Natural Climate Change Based on Solar Variability
3:09	W4.3	p.193	A. Clement, A. Hall, A. J. Brocolli, C. S. Jackson	Orbital signature in the climate. Part I: The Importance of precessional cycle in the tropics
3:21	W4.4	p.197	A. Hall, A. Clement, A. J. Brocolli, C. Jackson	Orbital Signature in the Climate. Part II: Mid- and High-Latitude Climate Modes
3:35			Break

W-5: Atmospheric Aerosols and Social Impact
Chair: Roger Shaw, Dalhousie University

3:50	W5.1	p.1	S. G. Jennings	The Marine Atmospheric Aerosol and Some Radiative Implications
4:20	W5.2	p.5	U. Lohmann	The magnitude of different aerosol-cloud effects between pre-industrial and present day
4:32	W5.3	p.9	S. Cosineau, J.- P. Blanchet, U. Lohmann	Albedo variations resulting from indirect effects of natural and anthropogenic sulfate aerosols in NARCM
4:44	W5.4	p.13	B. G. Liepert	Multi-Decadal Surface Solar Radiation Observations and their Relevance to Cloud and Aerosol Changes
4:56	W5.5	p.203	A. S. Keklikian	Sustainable Planning and Growth in Canada’a Capital Region
5:08	W5.6	p.207	R. Kuzelka, S. Seacrest, R. Leonard	Climate Change: Who is Listening; Who is Planning?
5:20	W5.7	p.211	J. M. Kasimolo	Climate Change: El-Nino in Kenya
5:32	W5.8	p.215	C. M. Jambo	Effects of Climate Changes on Lake Chilwa Fisheries (Malawi): An Overview of Fisheries Management Perspective
5:45			End

6:30-10:00 Banquet at the Lord Nelson Hotel

THURSDAY, AUGUST 23, 2001

8:10-8:25 Late Registration

8:30-8:55: Musical Prelude with Flute and Guitar

TH-1: Solar Variability and the Next Ice Age 1
Chair: Jim White, Colorado University, Boulder

9:00	TH1.1	p.241	P. Brekke	The Sun’s role in Climate Changes
9:30	TH1.2	p.245	A. Berger, M.-F. Loutre	An exceptionally long interglacial ahead ?
10:00	TH1.3	p.249	C. A. Perry	A Solar Kick for Climate: The Short and Long of It
10:30			Coffee

TH-2: Solar Variability and the Next Ice Age 2

Chair: Greg Holloway, Institute of Ocean Sciences, Sidney, BC

10:45	TH2.1	p.257	G. Kukla	Did the Last Interglacial End with Global Warming?
11:15	TH2.2	p.256	W. R. Peltier, G. Vettoretti	Glacial Inception in the Greenhouse: Coupled A-O GCM Simulations of the 5e-5d Transition and the Next
11:45			Panel Discussion	Brekke, Berger, Perry, Kukla, Peltier
12:15			Lunch

TH-3: Climate Variability 6
Chair: John Augustine, NOAA, Boulder

1:40	TH3.1	p.250	M. Khodri, Y. Leclainche, G. Ramstein, P. Braconnot, O. Marti, E. Cortijo	The role of the ocean in triggering the last glacial inception
2:00	TH3.2	p.220	O. Vidal, L. Gimeno, P. Ribera, R. García, E. Hernández, D. Gallego	Exploring the possibilities of the advection of temperature to diagnose the influence of changes in the atmospheric circulation on global temperature
2:12	TH3.3		Q. Fu, M. Baker, D. Hartmann	Tropical Cirrus and Water Vapor
2:24	TH3.4	p.224	W. Perrie	The impact of climate change on marine storms
2:36			Coffee

TH-4: Climate Variability 7
Chair: George Isaac, Dalhousie University and Meteorological Service of Canada

2:50	TH3.5	p.227	N. Zeng	An Earth System Model for Climate Variability Studies
3:02	TH3.4	p.228	A. Shabbar, K. Higuchi	Inter-ENSO Variability in Response to Boundary and Initial Flow Effects in our Ensemble of GCM Simulations
3:14	TH3.5	p.232	Y. Choi, K.-Y. Nam, H.-S. Jung, W.-T. Kwon	Estimating and Correcting Urban Bias in Regional Surface Temperature Time Series of Korea
3:26	TH3.6	p.236	D. Alessandro, P. Gabriella	Precipitation over Sardinia and associated large-scale circulation – a new approach.
3:38	TH3.7	p.240	S. A. Mahmood, K. Javed, S. Bilal, M. Riaz, F. Waqar	Infrared Detection Based Monitoring of Global Warming Gases
3:50			Thanks, Summary, Discussion

7:30-9:30 Open Forum Panel Discussion, P. Chylek - moderator

H. Grassl, P. Brekke, W. Gray, G. Kukla, C. Perry, C. de Freitas, A. Berger

FRIDAY, AUGUST 24, 2001

10:00-10:45 Planning Committee

11:00--5:00 Bus Tour to Peggy’s Cove